El Nino to develop into strong event between July and September, UN warns

(AFP) РEl Ni̱o will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of extreme weather, the United Nations weather and climate agency warned on Friday._x000D_
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The World Meteorological Organisation said El Niño had already set in, and would quickly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact._x000D_
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El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns._x000D_
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It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months._x000D_
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Conditions oscillate between El Niño and its opposite La Niña, with neutral conditions in between._x000D_
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The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards “a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September”._x000D_
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The UN agency classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four._x000D_
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“El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of … extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the WMO said._x000D_
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Heatwave risks_x000D_
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The Geneva-based agency said that forecasts produced by leading global climate centres, using different models, indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific._x000D_
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“Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions,” it said._x000D_
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The models show “remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook”, the WMO said._x000D_
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“El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe.“_x000D_
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“Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.”_x000D_
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The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average._x000D_
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While El Niño usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later down the line._x000D_
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“El Niño conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,” said WMO chief Celeste Saulo._x000D_
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“This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions.”_x000D_
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The WMO said it was stepping up early warning support to help guide preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and health._x000D_
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“Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said Saulo._x000D_
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Temperature impact_x000D_
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The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north — covering nearly all populated areas outside the polar regions._x000D_
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And the July to September rainfall outlook is consistent with a strengthening El Niño, with above-normal rainfall forecast in some areas such as portions of the southwestern United States, and below normal forecast across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia._x000D_
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The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events._x000D_
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However, the agency believes it can amplify the associated effects, because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall._x000D_
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During the northern hemisphere summer, warm waters associated with El Niño can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while hindering their development in the Atlantic Ocean.